The Texas Rangers made a big splash last offseason by signing Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jon Gray to multi-year contracts. If the 2022 season proved anything, it’s that the Rangers are still not quite there yet. They finished with a W-L record of 68-94, which was good for fourth in the AL West. Despite the recent lack of success, I believe the Rangers are close to being competitive. The organization has shown its willingness to spend money and be aggressive on the open market. In order to make improvements from last season, the Rangers need to (1) sign an ace, (2) get more consistent production from their big bats, and (3) win more one-run games.
In 2022, Rangers’ starting pitchers compiled a 4.63 ERA, 4.42 FIP, and 51 QS (league average was 59). Their starting pitchers only averaged 4.9 innings pitched per game started, which could be slightly misleading since teams heavily rely on their bullpen. Bottom line, the Rangers must sign an ace. Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and Carlos Rodon are the three top starters on the market. Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander will most likely return to the New York Mets and Houston Astros, respectively. Obviously, deGrom (34 y/o) and Verlander (39 y/o) are two of the best pitchers of their generation, but they are getting older. Age hasn’t slowed down either of these pitchers. In fact, most would argue that they’ve gotten better with age. However, the Texas Rangers are one of the youngest teams in Major League Baseball with an average age of 28.19 y/o. With Seager and Semien signed to long-term deals, the Rangers would be wise to sign Carlos Rodon (29 y/o), who is the youngest starting pitcher of the top three remaining free agent starters, to a long-term deal. Rodon has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last two seasons (2.67 ERA, 422 K, and 88 BB in 310.2 IP) and is currently entering his prime. Signing Rodon to a long-term deal would allow the Rangers to increase their window for competition.
The Texas Rangers will only be as good as Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are. In the 2022 season, Corey Seager set a new career high for HR with 33, but also had a .245 BA, .317 OBP, and .455 SLG, which were all well below his career averages (.287 BA, .357 OBP, and .494 SLG). Additionally, Marcus Semien had a brutal start to his Rangers’ career, which saw him post a .199 BA, .531 OPS, and .228 BABIP as well as compile only 1 HR between March and May. For a player who finished 3rd in AL MVP voting in 2019 and 2021, the 2022 season was viewed as a disappointment. For the 2023 season, the Rangers need more consistent play from their offensive leaders.
Roughly 28% of all MLB games are decided by one run. The Rangers had the worst record in one-run games in 2022 (15-35). The league average was 23-23. Part of this can be attributed to bad luck; however, if the Rangers improve their starting pitching and get more consistent offensive output, then it would be reasonable to assume they won’t have the worst record in one-run games in 2023.
Ultimately, can the Rangers make the playoffs in 2023? I don’t think 2023 is their year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they sneak in as the third Wild Card team. In my opinion, the Yankees, Blue Jays, Astros, and Mariners are locks to return to the playoffs in 2023. Of course, someone has to win the AL Central; however, I think this could be one of the most wide-open division races for the 2023 season. That leaves the third and final Wild Card spot up for grabs. I could see a number of teams making a push for this spot depending on how the division races turn out: the Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Guardians, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels, and Texas Rangers. The teams I’ve put in bold are my favorites to claim the third Wild Card spot. In reality, I could see the Rangers having a season more on par with the 2022 Baltimore Orioles. With that being said, in my opinion, the Rangers could potentially have one of the most underrated lineups in the American League (based on depth chart at the end of the 2022 season): Jonah Heim (C), Nathaniel Lowe (1B), Marcus Semien (2B), Josh Jung (3B), Corey Seager (SS), Josh Smith (LF), Leody Taveras (CF), Bubba Thompson (RF), and Adolis Garcia (DH). So, keep your eyes and ears open this winter to see what moves the Texas Rangers make. This team has the potential to win now and win for years to come.