Fairfield University’s Sports Analytics Club
The Showman
By Andrew Visceglia
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Bryce Harper attended Las Vegas High School in Nevada. In May 2009, Sports Illustrated featured Harper in a cover story, comparing him to the likes of Lebron James. For the 2010 college season, Harper, who was 17 at the time, enrolled at the College of Southern Nevada as a catcher. In 66 games, he hit 31 HR (shattering the school’s previous record of 12) with 98 RBI and a .443/.526/.987 triple slash. At the end of the season, Harper was named the SWAC Player of the Year as well as the recipient of the Golden Spikes Award. The Washington Nationals selected Bryce Harper with the first overall pick in the 2010 MLB draft as an outfielder in order to fast track his MLB ETA and extend his career. After dominating in the Nationals’ fall instructional league, Harper was selected to participate in the Arizona Fall League(AFL). He became the second-youngest player in the history of the AFL. In two short years, Harper made his MLB debut on April 28th, 2012. He would go on to win NL Rookie of the Year that season. In 2015, Harper was unanimously named NL MVP by the BBWA. At only 22, he became the youngest MLB player to win the award. During the 2018-19 offseason, Harper signed a 13-year, $330 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies, which was the most lucrative contract in the history of North American sports at the time. In 2021, Harper collected his second NL MVP award. This season, Harper has helped lead the Phillies to their first postseason appearance in 11 years as well as their first pennant since 2009, winning NLCS MVP along the way. Despite all of the hardware and hype, the 7x All-Star has been labeled as overrated and viewed as not quite living up to the lofty expectations. If anyone still has any doubts about Bryce Harper’s legitimacy, then you can simply look at the absurd postseason numbers he’s been compiling this year. Simply put, Bryce Harper is putting together one of the best postseasons in the history of the game.
After spearheading the Phillies to a commanding 7-0 win against the Astros in Game 3 with his first inning two-run homer, Bryce Harper became the first player in MLB history to hit 4 game-winning HR in a single postseason (HR that put team ahead to stay) according to OptaSTATS. In 14 playoff games, Harper has a .382/.414/.818 triple slash with 6 HR and 13 RBI. Of all players with at least 50 PA in a single postseason, Harper’s OPS of 1.232 ranks 11th all time. One might raise the question as to why the Astros are still pitching to him. Some will argue that it’s situational, whereas others will reason that you’ve got to beat the best to reach the promised land. I’m not here to provide an opinion on whether or not the Astros should pitch to him (they shouldn’t), but rather identify the zones he’s been most successful in and how the Astros can exploit his weaknesses.
Here’s a look at Bryce Harper’s zone breakdown for hard hit balls, home runs, and barrels during the 2022 season (zone from catcher’s perspective):
The majority of his damage has come on pitches in the bottom two-thirds of the zone. Obviously, professional hitters have to be adept at crushing the ball in the middle of the zone. Harper is no exception, but he excels at squaring up and driving pitches down in the zone as well as away in the zone. Harper’s home runs this postseason: (1) curveball – down and in (pull), (2) fastball – middle (pull), (3) cutter – down and away (opposite), (4) fastball – up and away (opposite), (5) sinker – away (opposite), and (6) knuckle curve – middle (pull). Summary of home runs: 3 pull and 3 opposite with 5 on pitches in the bottom two-thirds of the zone. As evidenced by the zone breakdown above, Harper can be beat in the upper third of the zone. If I were the Astros, I’d focus on pinpointing pitches up in the zone. Astros’ catchers Martín Maldonado and Christian Vázquez have better strike rates for pitches in the upper third of the zone. Strike rate is the percentage of non-swings on the edges of the zone (sometimes referred to as the shadow zone) converted into called strikes by the catcher. If the Astros’ pitchers can get ahead of Harper living up in the zone, they can bury breaking or off-speed pitches in the dirt. Harper has a 35.7% chase rate, which is in the 12th percentile for all qualified batters. In particular, Harper has struck out 59 times this season on pitches below the zone or up and away. I don’t think the Astros can completely stop Harper this series. He’s simply seeing the ball extremely well. However, I do believe that if they attempt to attack him in the ways mentioned above and limit the mistake pitches, then they have a chance of containing him.